March Madness Survivor Pool - Chop Question

[Jstack34]

36K Pot, down to 6 entrants.

My friend has Miami, one other person has Miami, and one guy has SDSU. The other 3 people have run out of teams (already burned Miami/UConn/FAU/SDSU). What is a fair chop offer at this point?

Or would it be better to bet UConn ML as a hedge instead of offering a chop?

 

[MAGAking1]

I know that that guys who are out of teamslikely wont accept the true expected value of their share.

If both Miami and SDSU lose then they would get 6k each ...Based on odds Uconn wins 68 pecent of the time and SDSU wins 55 percent of the time, a parlay of Miami and FAU wins about 14.5 percent of the time

I calculate their shares to be worth around $864ea...


I also believe the guy who has SDSU will overvalue his expected value as well, he probably thinks he is freerolling

 

[Jstack34]

Interesting - one of the guys with no teams opened up asking for 4K for the people with no teams and 8K for everyone else. Definitely over-valuing it there

 

[MAGAking1]

Interesting - one of the guys with no teams opened up asking for 4K for the people with no teams and 8K for everyone else. Definitely over-valuing it there

My rough calculations show that the 2 people w Miami are worth

approximately
37 percent of the time they win 0...Uconn wins and SDSU wins....
14 percent of the time they win 18k ea ...Miami wins and FAU wins......ev is 3060
18 percent of time they win 12k ea....Miami win and SDSU wins.....ev is 2160
31 percent of the time they win 6k ea..Uconn and FAU wins...ev is 1800


total ev 7200 ea for miami



Anyone who is a better math person than me feel free to refute if I missed something

 

[Hotpizza]

Why do the guys with no teams left feel they are owed anything?

They are eliminated and only those remaining are playing for the 36K.

Am I missing something here?

 

[MAGAking1]

Why do the guys with no teams left feel they are owed anything?

They are eliminated and only those remaining are playing for the 36K.

Am I missing something here?

NOT eliminated,just out of picks...they won in the last round so they cant officialy lose until the next round

They only lose if one of the surving teams picks a winner..

 

[Jstack34]

Why do the guys with no teams left feel they are owed anything?

They are eliminated and only those remaining are playing for the 36K.

Am I missing something here?

they aren’t eliminated yet as they picked a winning team on Sunday. They will be eliminated next game but so will everyone else if they don’t pick a winner - so they can still chop the pot if SDSU and Miami lose

 

[Hotpizza]

I'd low ball them 2K and 10K to the rest.

I say offer them 2K so if the come back at 3K and 9K to everyone else that's the deal you want if one must be made.

Personally if I had either SD St or Miami, I'd tell them to go fly a kite you're getting nothing. Both of those teams have a great chance to win Saturday.

If they must make a deal low ball them like I suggest. They know they are sitting on nothing right now and that's the way it's going to end up for them.

 

[MAGAking1]

I'd low ball them 2K and 10K to the rest.

I say offer them 2K so if the come back at 3K and 9K to everyone else that's the deal you want if one must be made.

Personally if I had either SD St or Miami, I'd tell them to go fly a kite you're getting nothing. Both of those teams have a great chance to win Saturday.

If they must make a deal low ball them like I suggest. They know they are sitting on nothing right now and that's the way it's going to end up for them.

LOL 2k is NOT a lowball , its more than double what their entries are worth.

 

[slapshot]

Let it play out no cut

 

[Jstack34]

Thanks, I think it makes sense to let it play out and hedge if needed if the guys are going to demand 4K like what is happening now.

 

[MAGAking1]

Thanks, I think it makes sense to let it play out and hedge if needed if the guys are going to demand 4K like what is happening now.

Well the SDSU game is on first so that will give you time to determine how/if you want to hedge on Mia/Uconn

 

[Hotpizza]

Personally I think their value is zero because they have no chance to move forward but was told but they can win 6K if both teams lose.

If it was me, I'd tell them to f off and enjoy getting zero because one if not both teams are winning as I stated prior. I'm not afraid of the -160 overall favorite in UCONN. They've had it easy to this point and sure come tell me differently and I'll just point you to the IDGAF poster.